MemberMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
I just wanted to take a moment to discuss what’s on the table here for the foreseeable future. I could be right, I could be wrong but only time will tell about this.
I’ve got people coming in buying stuff left and right and the overwhelming majority of the commentary goes something very close to this.
FC: What made you decide on the (insert whatever the wholesaler decided to ship me that week here)?
1: I think Biden will come and take them or pass a law to make sure we can’t buy them.
I really don’t think that will happen, but I will gladly take the money.
Another thing that happens with remarkable consistency is everyone saying about the subject of gun control “They can’t do that!” or “They’ll never get away with that, that’ll get struck down in court….”
It is well settled that the job of the judicial system is not to strike down unconstitutional laws. It’s the job of the PEOPLE to make sure the legislature does not enact unconstitutional laws to begin with. This is a fact that has fallen on deaf ears for far too long.
If we look at every major gun control initiative that’s passed in recent times, it’s been done on a state and not federal level. Look at California, Connecticut, I-1639 in Washington, SB 7026 in Florida, etc.
But don’t take my word for it. https://www.npr.org/2021/03/24/980894490/gun-legislation-at-the-state-level-over-the-last-10-years
Nick called me during the pandemic last year asking about what my thoughts were, and I told him. Turns out that everything I said, he researched and checked out and everything he’s saying on NPR is what I’ve been saying for years.
One thing that Nick said that I really didn’t give a lot of thought about until recently is that the gun ban in Boulder passed in May 2018 is just recently getting to court with a subsequent “you can’t do that” ruling.
Well, you know what’s fixing to happen? Judge tells the city that the city can’t enforce the law. City council will tell the police chief to enforce the law. Despite what the org chart says, the police chief works for the city manager/city council and not the citizens. The police chief will order the enforcement, some folks will beat the rap but not the ride and the city will be sued for enforcing an unlawful ordinance. The argument will (again) be “we’re home rule, whatever we want we will do! Don’t micromanage us!” and someone will have to take a case to court with limited damages to prove their point.
As some of you know, I am no stranger to municipal litigation.
Cities refuse to acknowledge there’s a problem until they’re having to pay out hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars in litigation costs/settlements.
What happens when the government is willing to fight the taxpayers *while using the taxpayer’s money*?
This. This is what happens. It’s happening in Boulder. It’s happening in REVERSE with the 2A Sanctuary movement.
What I’m seeing is a glacial shift of gun control attitudes. Look at Texas, Georgia, and a few other very southern states. They nearly elected governors who said flatly they would take people’s guns and seek gun bans. They lost with a margin of error of less than 1%.
The threat is real. The attitudes are shifting.
What the gun culture fails to understand is that gun control is not a well crafted well thought out measured process with easy to predict results.
Gun control is like a spin of the roulette wheel or the throw of the dice at a craps table. The ball and the dice have no memory. Each future outcome is distinctly and independent of past outcomes. “They can’t do that!” and “That’ll never hold up in court” are not witty rejoinders or defenses.
If the will of the people is to have their legislators ban something, damn the constitution – that’s exactly what will happen.
And contrary to popular opinion, the NRA is not helping. In fact, the NRA is blaming the failure to kill gun control bills on the members not advocating on the NRA’s behalf. I know, I was the one that confronted the NRA on it at SHOT show and that was their defense to the argument.
“But we got Amy Coney Barrett!” they’ll say.
Let me tell you all something. *I HAVE MORE EXPERIENCE TAKING A FEDERAL CASE TO TRIAL THAN ACB.*.
I’ll let that sink in for a minute. On paper, she is a highly intelligent Scalia protégé. However, this means nothing to me because the attitude of the court has consistently been to turn down hearing second amendment cases.
The times are changing. The winds are shifting. Know what side you’re on.
Here’s the TL/DR: If it goes bang, it’s out of stock. There’s your industry recap.
My hunch is we’re a year into a three year cycle.
A lot of the smaller retailers with high overhead and weak balance sheets who are not getting product in will fall by the wayside and not be able to continue business. They’re just not able to keep paying rent to keep an empty shelf.
The people shaming these small businesses for getting top dollar when they can are also to blame for that inevitable business failure. When it was cheap, they didn’t want to buy it. Now that it’s expensive, they really don’t want to buy it.
I think that we’re looking at the end of an era on cheap ammo. Inflation is here. Input costs are up. Metals are up as is fuel, transportation, etc.
My wholesale price on Tula 115gr 9mm with a 50,000 rd commitment is $22.95 a box if I want it in 2 weeks. That’s 46 cents a round for ammo you cannot shoot at a brass only indoor range.
I can pay the old wholesale price of $6 a box and not have any.
This business is faced with two distinct outcomes. If I pay more to get inferior product like that pallet of Tula 115gr, I’m yelled at and callled a price gouging son of a motherless goat even if I mark it up $20/thousand. If I don’t buy it, I’m the guy who’s a shitty gun retailer with nothing to sell and nothing in stock.
This isn’t a win win proposition. It’s a lose-lose proposition.
I expect these conditions to continue for the foreseable future. Demand vastly outstrips supply and I’m down to my last few hundred guns. If you see any movement with gun control federally, or another riot – I’ll be 100% out of stock. And that will be good for me but bad for everyone else.
That’s a full lid! I will now take your questions.
(I’ll answer them in the morning, I’ve got an early zoom meeting so I’m headed to bed early.)
fubar1911aGuestMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
This might be the best, most well thought out, and accurate posts of yours I have ever read.
Bubba-jonesGuestMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
No one goes there anymore. It’s too crowded. – Yogi Berra
If it’s a demand problem and not a supply problem, then there must exist gun shops who are making bank while others on the fringes get starved for inventory.
Which are making bank?
thhjikGuestMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
Or… just or…. You could read the rules.
sotfggyrdgGuestMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
Nice Three Amigos reference
The_Hater_44GuestMay 19, 2021 at 10:18 am
Do you still have 300+ glock mags stacked on the table?