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  • Odds of Chipman being confirmed?

     Margaret updated 11 months, 2 weeks ago 2 Members · 7 Posts
  • Margaret

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    The senate only needs a simple majority to confirm him on Thursday, so we’ll soon find out. Regardless, I’ve been speculating on what the possible vote could turn out like.

    If no Democrat goes against the party line, then the confirmation goes through. However, assuming at least one of the moderate Dems (Manchin / Sinema) votes No, and no republican breaks ranks, then the confirmation falls apart. I actually think this favorable second outcome is possible. I’ve been seeing a lot of doom and gloom on this sub regarding the confirmation, but I don’t think that it’s time to lose all hope.

    Joe Manchin is Democrat from the reddest state in the country. He campaigned for re-election as being pro gun, actually making political ads of him shooting. He responded to Beto O’Rourke’s gun grabbing comments by saying that Beto isn’t taking his guns. Not to mention, he said he would not vote for the universal background check bill, which is pretty low hanging fruit. He was lucky to get re-elected last time, and I think realizes that he would be in very hot water with his state and completely be going against the pro 2A advancements being made there. Not to mention, he so far messed up the dem’s hopes of getting through HR 1 and some other bills, so he’s not afraid to stick it to them.

    People give moderate republicans like Romney and Murksowski crap, but I can’t honestly see these people voting for a gun control lobbyist as head of the ATF. Based on their statements and history, they wouldn’t even be voting for universal background checks, which is again pretty low hanging fruit for gun grabbers. They would potentially vote for a hypothetical “commercial sale” background check bill. The point is that they are still relatively pro 2A (or at least pretend to be). Such an obvious vote against the 2A would probably wreck their careers and I think goes too far even for them.

  • h3r3wego

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    How many times have we seen republicans vote against their party lines? I bet he’s confirmed with a few rinos votes, as much as I wouldn’t want to see it happen.

  • Psalmopeus

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    Romney will flip, mark my words. Remind me reddit!

  • IntoTheSecretForest

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    Depends how much profit he’s gonna bring in for the senators.

  • slayerclub

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    Its really fucking stupid that it requires a simple majority in the first place. Its also really fucking stupid the ATF even exists in the first place.

  • Ice_Dapper

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm


  • Branch_COVID19ian

    June 15, 2021 at 1:10 pm

    It’s hard to say really. On the one hand, there are some moderate Dems like Manchin, Tester, and Sinema that might vote against him. I did check open secrets and it looks like they’ve all taken money from anti-gun lobbies so I sort of doubt they won’t vote for Chipman.
    Assuming we could manage to peel away at least one dem, we would still have to hold onto all Republicans as well. I don’t see the deep red state RINOs (Murkowski or Romney) voting for Chipman. I could see ones like Susan Collins or Marco Rubio potentially voting for him though.

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